In-brief analysis
December 12, 2025
EIA forecasts U.S. crude oil production will decrease slightly in 2026
Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), December 2025
- In our latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, we forecast U.S. crude oil production will average 13.5 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2026, about 100,000 b/d less than in 2025.
- This forecast decline in production follows four years of rising crude oil output.
- Production increased by 0.3 million b/d in 2024 and by 0.4 million b/d in 2025, mostly because of increased output in the Permian Basin in Texas and New Mexico.
- In 2026, we forecast modest production increases in Alaska, the Federal Gulf of America, and the Permian will be offset by declines in other parts of the United States.
- We forecast that the West Texas Intermediate crude oil price will average $65 per barrel (b) in 2025 and $51/b in 2026, both lower than the 2024 average of $77/b.
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