Iran Asserts Control over Hormuz, Setting Stage for Tolls as Oil Tankers Hold Back Amid Lingering Uncertainty

Iran is tightening its grip on the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most critical oil chokepoint, with new rules requiring ships to obtain permission and secure insurance from Tehran. This move explicitly paves the way for future tolls, even as a fragile U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding (MOU) signed earlier this week aimed to normalize flows.

Oil tanker traffic is resuming but far from “flooding through.” Normalization remains slow, keeping global supply tight and supporting a rebound in crude prices despite earlier optimism about a deal. Vice President Vance stated that 12 million barrels have gone through the Strait in the last few days.

Iran’s New Hormuz Rules: Permission, Insurance, and Tolls Ahead

On June 19, Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority published rules stating that vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz must follow Iran’s prescribed route and obtain a mandatory insurance policy from Tehran. While the policy is currently free, the framework is clearly designed to allow future fees.

This directly challenges Western naval guidance (which recommends hugging the Omani coast) and asserts Iranian sovereignty over the waterway that carries roughly 20% of global seaborne oil trade.

The timing is no coincidence. It comes just days after the June 17 electronic signing of a 14-point U.S.-Iran MOU by President Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. The MOU called for reopening the Strait, lifting the U.S. naval blockade, and an immediate ceasefire across fronts — but with key conditions tied to developments in Lebanon.

MOU Under Strain: Israel Continues Operations in Lebanon

Iran has signaled it is not fully implementing aspects of the MOU while Israel continues military strikes in southern Lebanon against Hezbollah targets. Israeli officials have stated they have no plans to halt operations, and the IDF confirmed ongoing strikes overnight into June 19.

The MOU’s implementation — including full Hormuz normalization — appears contingent on a Lebanon ceasefire that has yet to materialize. U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance reportedly canceled a trip to related talks in Switzerland, and Swiss authorities confirmed the postponement.

This uncertainty has directly impacted market sentiment.

Oil Prices Rebound on Deal Uncertainty

After falling sharply earlier in the week on hopes of restored Middle East flows, both benchmarks rebounded on June 19:WTI traded around $76–77 per barrel.
Brent climbed back above $80 per barrel.

Traders are pricing in slower-than-expected normalization of Persian Gulf exports. Earlier assumptions of rapid tanker movements and surging supply have been tempered by the reality on the ground.

U.S. Inventory Picture: Cushing at Operational Bottoms, SPR Nearing Critical Levels

The tight global supply picture is amplified by critically low U.S. inventories after months of disruptions:

Cushing, Oklahoma (the WTI delivery point): Stocks stood at just 20.03 million barrels for the week ending June 12 — the lowest since 2014 and right at (or below) the widely cited operational floor of ~20 million barrels. When levels drop below this threshold, tanks hit “bottoms,” quality degrades, and operational issues emerge.

Gulf Coast (PADD 3) refineries and storage: Commercial crude stocks have drawn sharply, reaching approximately 243.8 million barrels by mid-June amid record exports and high refinery utilization.

Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR): Levels have fallen to roughly 340 million barrels as of the week ending June 12 — the lowest in nearly 40 years. With ongoing weekly draws of 8–9 million barrels, the SPR is only a few weeks away from levels that would raise serious national security and operational concerns (practical minimums discussed in the 150–300 million barrel range to preserve cavern integrity and strategic value).

These draws reflect both strong export demand (U.S. crude exports near record highs) and the need to backfill global supply lost from Hormuz disruptions since late February.

Tankers Not Flooding Through — Yet

Despite the MOU and some early signs of movement (including Saudi-flagged supertankers transiting with millions of barrels), traffic through the Strait remains well below pre-war norms.

Data show a slow pickup in mid-June, but full normalization faces hurdles: mine clearance, insurance complications, and hundreds of stranded vessels.

Industry sources indicate it will take weeks — not days — for flows to return to normal even under ideal conditions.

Market Implications

The combination of:

• Iran’s assertive new Hormuz rules (potential future tolls),
• Lingering MOU uncertainty tied to the Lebanon conflict,
• Cushing at operational tank bottoms, and
• SPR approaching multi-decade lows

…creates a structurally tight near-term oil market. Any further delay in Hormuz normalization or escalation in Lebanon could quickly push prices higher again. Conversely, credible progress on a Lebanon ceasefire and full implementation of the MOU could ease pressure — but markets are no longer assuming a quick resolution.

Bottom line: Iran is using its leverage over the Strait of Hormuz to reassert control and lay groundwork for tolls, while physical oil flows — and U.S. inventories — remain under significant strain. Tankers are moving, but they are not flooding through. The energy market remains on edge.

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