U.S. Sale of Venezuela’s Oil Hits $13 Billion Since Maduro Capture

President Donald Trump announced this week that U.S.-controlled sales of Venezuelan oil have generated more than $13 billion since the January 3, 2026, capture of former President Nicolás Maduro. The figure aligns with Financial Times calculations of revenues held in U.S. Treasury accounts. Trump stated the proceeds have “paid for that war many times over,” referring to the military operation that removed Maduro and installed an interim government under Delcy Rodríguez, with the United States assuming indefinite oversight of oil exports.

Energy Secretary Chris Wright previously reported that roughly 150 million barrels had been sold by April. Venezuelan heavy, sour crude typically trades at a discount of up to $15 per barrel to Brent. The funds initially moved through a short-term Qatari account to avoid creditor claims before shifting to U.S. Treasury-managed accounts (including at Citibank). Audits are conducted by KPMG.

Oil Exports and Production: A Decade of Decline and Rapid Rebound

Venezuela’s oil sector suffered a steep collapse under years of mismanagement, underinvestment, and U.S. sanctions. Production and exports fell from over 2 million barrels per day (bpd) in the mid-2010s to lows near 400,000–500,000 bpd around 2020. Gradual recovery occurred in later years through limited licenses (notably Chevron) and shadow-fleet sales, but volumes remained constrained.

Approximate annual average crude oil production/export levels (thousand bpd; drawn from OPEC secondary sources, Reuters shipping data, CEIC, and related estimates; 2026 is year-to-date through mid-year):

Monthly data for 2026 show a sharp acceleration after the January capture and lifting of the preceding oil blockade:January: ~800,000 bpd (up from ~498,000 bpd in December 2025)

• March–April: rising to 1.08–1.23 million bpd
• May: 1.25 million bpd (seven-year high)
• June production reported near 1.19 million bpd

Output has climbed from roughly 820,000 bpd in early 2026 toward 1.2+ million bpd, with the oil ministry targeting 1.37 million bpd by year-end. Exports in May alone involved dozens of cargoes.

Where the Oil Went Before and After the Capture

Prior to January 2026, China dominated Venezuelan crude exports, typically taking 50–80% of volumes (often 60–80% in 2024–2025 estimates). Much of this moved via rebranding, ship-to-ship transfers, or third-country flags (Malaysia, Brazil) to obscure origin. Volumes to China supported discounted sales linked to debt repayment. The United States (mainly via Chevron joint ventures) accounted for a secondary share (around 15–25% in some years), with smaller flows to Cuba, India, Spain, and Europe. Total 2025 exports averaged roughly 750,000–920,000 bpd depending on the source.

Since the U.S. takeover, destinations have shifted decisively. Tanker-tracking and analyses (Bloomberg, CFR, Reuters) indicate the largest recipients through the first months were:

• United States: ~43%
• India: ~26%
• Spain: ~8%
• Remainder to Europe (Italy, Netherlands, etc.) and limited other markets

China’s share has dropped sharply. U.S. Gulf Coast refiners (Texas and others) are processing the highest volumes of Venezuelan crude since before 2019 sanctions. India’s Reliance Industries has ramped up direct supply chains. European majors such as Repsol and Eni have expanded liftings of Merey 16 crude. Traders including Vitol and Trafigura handled early volumes under U.S. licenses, with growing direct deals between PDVSA and refiners (e.g., Phillips 66).

Revenue Flows to the Venezuelan Government

Of the more than $13 billion collected, publicly documented transfers to Venezuelan authorities remain limited relative to the total. Early reports indicated $300–500 million moved via the Qatari account and fully transferred. Later congressional testimony referenced roughly $3 billion authorized or disbursed for government salaries, oil infrastructure, and operations. One figure cited ~$386 million in official disaster-related aid after earthquakes. The bulk of the remainder sits in U.S.-controlled Treasury accounts as Venezuelan sovereign property under U.S. custodianship. Caracas submits budget requests subject to U.S. approval.

Under the prior Maduro government, oil revenues (often heavily discounted to China and other buyers) flowed primarily to the regime with limited transparency and heavy use for patronage and debt service. The new structure generates higher effective prices (closer to market rates) but channels the majority of cash through U.S. oversight, increasing formal accountability while raising questions from U.S. lawmakers of both parties about transparency and congressional oversight.

U.S. and International Companies Returning; Growth and Projections

Chevron, the only major U.S. operator that maintained a continuous presence under licenses, has expanded liftings and production from its joint ventures (previously ~200,000–240,000 bpd gross). Company executives indicated potential for a 50% increase in the near term through existing assets.ExxonMobil has advanced talks to return after nearly two decades, evaluating fields and nearing possible contracts for multiple blocks. Shell, BP, Eni, and Repsol have received permissions to negotiate. The 2026 Hydrocarbons Law reforms reduced PDVSA’s mandatory majority stakes and improved fiscal terms to attract private capital.

Near-term growth is constrained by aging infrastructure and oilfield-services shortages. Rystad Energy and others estimate meaningful gains through 2028 will come mainly from mature fields. Restoring historical capacity near 3 million bpd could require cumulative investment on the order of $180+ billion through 2040.

Projections vary:

• Trading Economics models: ~1.5 million bpd in 2027 and ~2.0 million bpd in 2028.
• Other forecasts: 1.3–1.5 million bpd by the late 2020s under continued reforms and investment, with higher scenarios possible if security, legal, and commercial conditions stabilize.

Analysts note that even substantial recovery would still leave Venezuela well below its 1990s peak of over 3 million bpd, but the post-capture rebound has already returned exports to seven-year highs and redirected supply toward U.S., Indian, and European refiners at higher realized prices.

The $13 billion milestone underscores both the scale of Venezuela’s remaining oil wealth and the profound shift in control, markets, and revenue management that followed Maduro’s capture. Full public accounting of the funds and sustained private investment will determine whether the recovery deepens in the years ahead.

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