Author: Stu

Regime Change in Venezuela Will Change the Oil Markets

Or is this about the Monroe Doctrine? 1. The Trump administration’s actions against Venezuela, including the capture of a “dark fleet” oil tanker. We discuss whether this is more about oil or a show of force against the Venezuelan government. Stu chimes in that Panama is not renewing their “Belt and Road” initiative with China, […]

Global Oil Demand to Increase Over the Next 15 Years: What Does This Mean for Investors?

In a world increasingly focused on energy transitions and geopolitical tensions, recent projections paint a picture of sustained growth in global oil demand. According to a report from the CNPC Economics and Technology Research Institute, global oil demand is expected to continue rising until peaking in 2040 at 4.8 billion tons, marking a significant upward […]

Regime Change in Venezuela Will Change the Oil Markets

Venezuela, home to the world’s largest proven oil reserves, has long been a pivotal player in global energy dynamics. However, years of political turmoil, economic mismanagement, and stringent U.S. sanctions have crippled its oil industry, reducing production from peaks of around 2 million barrels per day (bpd) in the mid-2010s to roughly 900,000 bpd today. […]

Is the AI Data Center Build Out in Texas a Home Run or a Potential Bust?

The artificial intelligence revolution is reshaping industries worldwide, and nowhere is this more evident than in Texas, where a flood of data center projects is straining the state’s energy infrastructure. With requests for over 220 gigawatts (GW) of new electricity connections by 2030—more than twice the grid’s current peak demand—Texas is at the epicenter of […]

Ukrainian Drone Strikes Escalate: Afipsky Refinery Hit Amid Wave of Attacks on Russian Oil Infrastructure

In a series of bold operations, Ukrainian forces have intensified their drone campaigns against Russian energy assets, underscoring the ongoing geopolitical tensions’ profound impact on global oil markets. The latest strikes, including a significant hit on the Afipsky oil refinery in Krasnodar Krai, highlight Ukraine’s strategy to disrupt Russia’s oil production and export capabilities. Additional […]

What Are the Impacts to the EU Should They Seize Russian Monetary Assets?

The European Union’s decision to indefinitely freeze approximately €210 billion ($246 billion) in Russian central bank assets, announced on December 12, 2025, marks a significant escalation in the bloc’s response to Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine. These assets, primarily held in Belgium through the Euroclear clearinghouse, have been immobilized since early 2022, generating billions in […]

Dark Fleet Oil Ships Dock in Venezuela, Showing Challenge for US

In a bold display of defiance against US sanctions, two shadowy supertankers—operating under the pseudonyms “Crag” and “Galaxy 3″—have docked at Venezuela’s Jose port to load nearly 4 million barrels of Merey 16 crude oil destined for Asia. These vessels, part of the infamous “dark fleet” used to evade international restrictions, highlight the ongoing cat-and-mouse […]

EIA forecasts U.S. crude oil production will decrease slightly in 2026

 In-brief analysis December 12, 2025 EIA forecasts U.S. crude oil production will decrease slightly in 2026 Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), December 2025   In our latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, we forecast U.S. crude oil production will average 13.5 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2026, about 100,000 b/d less than in 2025. This […]

A Challenging and Volatile Year for U.S. Shale

Oil had a weak and volatile year, while natural gas outperformed on the back of LNG approvals, higher breakevens, and emerging data-center demand. Despite price pressure, U.S. E&Ps outperformed expectations, and production is unlikely to decline unless oil approaches the $50 per barrel threshold. Looking ahead to 2026, U.S. shale operators may expand international exposure […]

Blue States, High Rates

ENB Pub Note: This is an outstanding article from the Energy Bad Boys, Mitch Rolling and Isaac Orr, on Substack. We highly recommend subscribing to and supporting them. They bring out some crazy points, and I love the line “Electricity Prices: Elections Have Consequences”. With the Democrats pointing fingers at the Republicans about high prices […]