Europe’s Jet Fuel Crisis is Developing and California is Not Far Behind

Europe is staring down a jet fuel supply crunch that could disrupt summer travel as early as June, with imports from the Middle East — historically its largest external source — completely halted this month. California, already grappling with refinery closures and heavy reliance on strained Asian imports, is only weeks behind, with tanker tracking data showing just 2–3 more weeks of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel shipments in transit to its ports.

According to a Reuters report published today, no jet fuel cargoes loaded from the Middle East are headed to Europe in April — the first such month since tanker tracking firm Kpler began compiling data in 2017. Last year, nearly 60% of OECD Europe’s jet fuel imports from outside the region came from the Middle East. Regional refineries produce only about 1.1 million barrels per day (bpd) of jet fuel and kerosene, while consumption runs at roughly 1.6 million bpd, leaving a structural shortfall that imports must fill. With Middle East flows stopped due to the Iran war and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, overall European product imports are on track for their lowest level in four years.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned that Europe could face physical jet fuel shortages by June if it can only replace half of its lost Middle East supplies. Inventories are already tight — Societe Generale estimates EU forward cover could drop toward 30 days of demand by year-end — and jet fuel prices have surged above $200 per barrel. Some airlines have begun trimming schedules, and Sweden’s energy minister has publicly flagged risks of shortages ahead. Refiners are maximizing jet and diesel output, but analysts at Energy Aspects note that sustained disruption could force deeper stock draws by late summer.

Europe has ramped up purchases from the United States (record April shipments) and other sources such as Africa and North America, but these are not fully offsetting the gap. The last pre-war tankers from the Gulf have already delivered, and new loadings from the Middle East remain at record lows.

California’s Tanker Pipeline Is Drying Up

On the U.S. West Coast, California faces a parallel — though slightly delayed — crisis. The state is effectively a “fuel island,” isolated from national pipelines and dependent on tankers for much of its crude and refined products. Two major refinery closures (Phillips 66’s Los Angeles facility and Valero’s Benicia refinery near San Francisco) have slashed local refining capacity by nearly 20%, just as global supply chains tighten.

Industry analysts tracking Pacific tanker movements, as reported by Energy News Beat, indicate that only two to three more weeks of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel shipments remain in transit to California ports. Once these arrive (likely by mid-May), the state could lose the equivalent of roughly 42% of its gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel supply chain, with no immediate replacement cargoes on the horizon. Pacific transit times of 30–45 days mean the current queue represents just 14–21 days of cover once offloaded.

California’s jet fuel stockpiles have already plunged more than 25% to two-year lows (just over 2.6 million barrels as of mid-April, per California Energy Commission data). Prices at LAX have spiked to nearly $15 per gallon, compared with $10–11 at major U.S. hubs elsewhere. Gasoline averages around $6 per gallon — roughly $2 above the national average — while diesel sits near $7.50. Imports from Asia, California’s primary foreign supplier, are themselves squeezed by the same Middle East disruptions that are hammering Europe.

A temporary Jones Act waiver has allowed some foreign-flagged tankers to move fuel from U.S. Gulf Coast and Washington state refineries to California, with nine shipments already completed or en route as of late April. However, this is incremental relief at best and expires in mid-May unless extended. Longer-term pipeline projects (such as Phillips 66–Kinder Morgan’s Western Gateway) won’t arrive until 2029.

A Tale of Two Coasts — But the Same Global Shock

Both regions are feeling the downstream effects of the Iran conflict: halted Middle East exports, congested shipping routes, and tight global refining margins. Europe’s exposure is more immediate because of its heavier pre-crisis dependence on Gulf jet fuel. California’s crunch is amplified by domestic policy choices — aggressive refinery closures and regulatory barriers — layered on top of the international shock.

Airlines on both sides of the Atlantic are already warning of higher fares, route cuts, and potential cancellations heading into peak summer travel. Diesel, critical for trucking and logistics, could follow jet fuel into a tighter supply, raising goods prices across the board.

The clock is ticking. Europe has roughly four to six weeks of meaningful cover left in many assessments; California’s tanker window closes in mid-May. Without a swift resolution to the Strait of Hormuz situation or aggressive new sourcing, both markets risk summer shortages that could ripple into higher energy costs, reduced mobility, and economic pressure.

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