That means much depends on how quickly Colonial can restart the pipelines — which depends in large part on whether the company’s cyber consultants can determine that it’s safe to do so.
“They’ll learn that in the first 24 to 72 hours,” said Rob Lee, CEO of the cybersecurity firm Dragos and an expert in the risks to industrial computer systems. He added that if the attack was limited to Colonial’s business computer systems, “I think it’s going to be relatively short-lived.”
Even so, the attack is just the latest episode in which hackers have gone after critical systems such as water plants, oil refineries, chemical plants or the electric grid — including a notorious incident in which Russia shut off part of Ukraine’s power supply. It’s also part of a growing plague involving ransomware, in which hackers demanding payments have crippled targets such as hospitals, police stations or municipal governments.
This could be the most serious successful attack the U.S. has faced yet.
“This was not a minor target,” said Amy Myers Jaffe, a long-time energy researcher and author of Energy’s Digital Future. “Colonial Pipeline is ultimately the jugular of the U.S. pipeline system. It’s the most significant, successful attack on energy infrastructure we know of in the United States. We’re lucky if there are no consequences, but it’s a definite alarm bell.”
The Department of Homeland Security’s Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency believes that the intrusion is the work of the criminal ransomware gang known as Darkside and not a nation-state, according to a security researcher who requested anonymity to speak freely. Agencies including the FBI, Energy Department and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission were also responding to the incident, while lawmakers on committees such as Senate Homeland and House Intelligence have requested briefings.
CISA — which has lacked a permanent chief since then-President Donald Trump fired the last one in November — said in a statement Saturday that it is “engaged” with Colonial and other federal agencies in addressing the incident. “We encourage every organization to take action to strengthen their cybersecurity posture to reduce their exposure to these types of threats,” said Eric Goldstein, the executive assistant director of the agency’s cybersecurity division.
Biden last month nominated national security veterans to lead both CISA and a newly created White House office that is supposed to guide the president’s cyber strategy and oversee agencies’ digital security. POLITICO has previously reported on some lawmakers’ complaints that Biden was slow to fill the latter role.
Sen. Ben Sasse (R-Neb.) said Saturday that the attack is the latest indication that the government isn’t ready for potentially debilitating cyber strikes.
“There’s obviously much still to learn about how this attack happened, but we can be sure of two things: This is a play that will be run again, and we’re not adequately prepared,” Sasse said in a statement. “If Congress is serious about an infrastructure package, at front and center should be the hardening of these critical sectors — rather than progressive wishlists masquerading as infrastructure.”
The government agency with direct jurisdiction over pipeline cybersecurity is DHS’ Transportation Security Administration, which government auditors have criticized as understaffed and unprepared for the task.
Sen. Ed Markey (D-Ma.) said the federal government has long failed to devote the needed attention to pipeline security, and he pointed to a U.S. Government Accountability Office report that showed the TSA had only six full-time staff on pipeline security as recently as 2019.
“While we need more information about the circumstances that allowed the Colonial Pipeline cyberattack, we cannot ignore the longstanding inadequacies that allowed for, and enabled, cyber intrusions into our critical infrastructure,” he said in a statement.
The FBI and FERC also said they are working with other federal agencies to monitor developments on the cyberattack, while the Department of Energy said it was working with states and the energy sector to monitor any potential fuel shortages. The Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration, the branch of the Department of Transportation that investigates pipeline accidents and clears them for restarts after shutdown, did not immediately reply to questions.
Fuel imports into New York Harbor should cushion the blow for drivers in Baltimore and places north, market analysts said. But if Colonial remains down past the start of this coming week, drivers could begin to hoard fuel and prices will rise dramatically even before the normal start of the summer driving season, when prices normally increase.