Citgo’s Profit Outlook Jumps $2 Billion While Diesel Drivers Pay $6.32

The Venezuelan-owned refiner now expects $7.7 billion to $8 billion in 2026 EBITDA on surging fuel margins. Meanwhile, the court fight over who owns it reaches a federal appeals court today. an arbitration award against Venezuela. On Nov. 25, 2025, Judge Leonard P. Stark approved a $5.9 billion bid from

The Venezuelan-owned refiner now expects $7.7 billion to $8 billion in 2026 EBITDA on surging fuel margins. Meanwhile, the court fight over who owns it reaches a federal appeals court today.

an arbitration award against Venezuela. On Nov. 25, 2025, Judge Leonard P. Stark approved a $5.9 billion bid from Amber Energy, an affiliate of Elliott Investment Management (Reuters), and he signed the sale order on Nov. 29.

As of this morning, the sale has not closed. Amber still needs a Treasury Department (OFAC) license, and filings through Oct. 13 show it had not been issued (Vene Economist). Venezuela’s government, now led by interim President Delcy Rodríguez (OGJ), is appealing. On Oct. 1 it asked the Third Circuit to pause the appeal for six months while it pursues a debt deal. On Oct. 13, the Justice Department told the court the U.S. “has no views to express at this time.” On Oct. 15 the court refused to postpone argument. As of Oct. 18, the public docket showed no ruling on the pause (Vene Economist). Argument is set for today at 11:30 a.m. ET (10:30 a.m. CT) in Philadelphia.

The creditors are a long list. Under the Amber deal, about $5.9 billion would be paid out to 15 creditors, including ConocoPhillips (OGJ). Holders of PDVSA’s 2020 bonds, which are backed by a pledge of Citgo shares, have their own claim (OFAC). ConocoPhillips says judgments attached to the PDV Holding shares top $20 billion (Vene Economist).

Citgo quarterly EBITDA: Q1 and Q2 as reported in the Q2 release; Q3 and Q4 implied ranges are ENB calculations from the outlook reported by Bloomberg. Diesel from AAA. Chart: Energy News Beat.

Stu’s Take (opinion)

Citgo now expects $7.7 billion to $8 billion of EBITDA this year. That’s more than the $5.9 billion the court accepted for its parent company. EBITDA isn’t a sale price, but the gap shows how far this market has moved since that auction.

The trucker paying $6.32 for diesel doesn’t care who owns the refinery. He cares whether it runs flat out, and refiners are already at 95% to 100%. Strong margins are the market telling us to build and restart capacity. Citgo has struggled to make long-term decisions while the sale stays frozen. Settle the ownership, and let whoever owns those plants invest.

Sources

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Stu

Sandstone Group

Founded in 2019 as a boutique oil and gas financial advisory firm, Sandstone Group has grown into a comprehensive energy consultancy with divisions in financial advisory, media, and asset management. Our vision is to eliminate energy poverty worldwide by bridging innovative technologies, capital, and thought leadership.